There is no coherent and funded industrial policy for Scotland, and the fate of Grangemouth workers is its consequence, writes Derek Thomson, Scottish Secretary of Unite the Union.

Petroineos’ premature and needless decision to close the Grangemouth refinery in 2025 has starkly laid out government weakness. The reality is that both the Scottish and UK governments have so far failed to persuade the company to extend the lifespan of the refinery. What is now on the brink of happening at Grangemouth will make tens of thousands of oil and gas workers, and all the communities dependent upon the industry, extremely nervous about the ability of government to deliver a managed energy transition.

Grangemouth crudely demonstrates that there is a transition but there’s nothing just about it for workers. The complex currently retains the only oil refinery in Scotland. It provides four per cent of the nation’s GDP while accounting for around eight per cent of its manufacturing base. There are 2822 direct and indirect jobs on the immediate horizon at risk if the refinery closes, and with it an eye-watering £403.6 million evaporating from the economy. The unemployment rate in the local area stands at around 9.1 per cent compared with 4.6 per cent nationally, while 23.7 per cent of residents are economically deprived compared to a Scotland-wide average of 9.3 per cent. The school attendance rate in Grangemouth was 69.8 per cent compared to a national average of 90.2 per cent in 2022/23. 

At the heart of these statistics are issues of hope, belief and the confidence which people have for their future prospects. In this wider context, the centrality of the Grangemouth complex and the economic opportunities it provides is evident because it helps fuel hope for local people and future generations. The refinery’s closure will be an economic earthquake which will affect generations to come and will shatter thousands of families. It will be felt not only by today’s workers but by their children – and those of the wider community.  

It is a betrayal of their future by Petroineos first and foremost, but government is equally making a choice to stand-by and do nothing. Warm words about the renewables projects of the future do nothing for the workers of today. Alarmingly, the so-called ‘visionary’ documents being produced by government talk of what will be delivered at Grangemouth by 2045 – literally a generation away. The potential benefits of developing renewables industries at the complex through Project Willow are up to ten years away, and they will do nothing to protect the current refinery jobs. 

Keir Starmer may have taken down the picture of Margaret Thatcher from his office while John Swinney may talk about the devastating hurt that the closing down of Scotland’s mines caused for communities, but in the first real test of the Just Transition process they have contributed net zero in support of the Grangemouth workers and the local community. Unite’s members are furious over the false promises, inaction and crass comments made by government ministers – and they feel utterly betrayed. Ministers have callously tried to downplay and deflect the industrial wreckage which they are presiding over. Ministers have commented that they are “confident” the workforce would find other work, and that they were aware of other companies having “already reached out to the workforce”. These are fanciful notions. Their condescension betrays the industrial reality. There are presently no other highly-skilled and well-paid jobs for the refinery workers to seamlessly transition into in the local area.  

Both governments must revisit the prospective closure at Grangemouth and look again at what can be done to keep it open. We do not believe the fight is over. Unite is demanding that government re-examine all available options. For us that means taking a transitional stake in our energy production and supply chain where it is essential until such a time that we can deliver the greener jobs of the future. We need to be demanding answers from leading government ministers and political leaders including John Swinney, Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar as to why they wouldn’t support a transitional stake to protect jobs at Grangemouth – and anywhere else for that matter where it was in our national interests. Politicians have been telling us for well over a decade that they are going to generate tens of thousands of jobs across the green economy, yet they simultaneously say they have no power to influence commercial decision making when confronted with a situation like Grangemouth. 

It is a damning indictment of all major political parties who have held, or currently hold power at a UK and Scottish level that there is no coherent and funded industrial policy for Scotland. The latest figures estimate that only 6,200 people work directly in the onshore and offshore wind sectors. Let’s remember that the Scottish Government boasted that offshore wind in itself could create around 48,000 direct and indirect jobs by 2020. There are the ongoing situations at Harland & Wolff’s Arnish and Methil yards, and Alexander Dennis. These workplaces in our view are all strategically vital to the ability of Scotland to possess a meaningful domestic green manufacturing capacity.  Again, government stands idly by and prays for the best from the sidelines. That’s not a plan. We are already seeing widespread evidence of a jobs crisis in the oil and gas industry developing across Scotland with Grangemouth being the tip of a titanic iceberg. There is an economic earthquake brewing which will disproportionately impact the Northeast and the central belt of Scotland. 

Unite is crystal clear that if a Just Transition is to mean anything then it must be managed in an orderly and organised way by government to avoid the industrial decimation which was unleashed during the 1980s.  We cannot allow oil and gas workers to become the coal miners of our generation. Future investment to create jobs in renewable industries through GB Energy and other government agencies is welcome but what we urgently need is government to put its real energy into preserving the jobs of today, starting at Grangemouth. Unless strategic state support happens, then both governments will be responsible for creating working class wastelands and allowing mass industrial vandalism to take place – and they should never be forgiven if this avoidable destruction comes to pass.

Derek Thomson is the Scottish Secretary of Unite the Union.