In the wake of the ICC ruling against Israeli war criminals, Donny Gluckstein considers why those who wrote the rules look ready to rip up the rule-book.

Those revolted by the horrors Israel is perpetrating in the Middle East rightly refer to the failure of the ‘international community’ to act. While the International Criminal Court has recently been acclaimed for issuing an arrest warrant for Benjamen Netenyahu and Yoav Gallant, the United Nations, International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court are completely ignored by Israel and its backers. This puts the future of the so-called ‘rules-based international order’ in jeopardy.

This ‘order’ owes its existence to three factors. Firstly, the victorious WWII powers set up the UN to prolong their domination. The permanent members of its Security Council (with a veto) were Britain – the biggest world empire ever; France – the second biggest; Russia – under Stalin and about to consolidate control of Eastern Europe; the USA – the newly dominant nuclear superstate; and China – then under the Nationalists acting as a tool of US interests.

Secondly, the two world wars showed these states how unregulated rivalries could get out of hand and threaten destruction of the very globe they wished to dominate. In Capital, Marx described the bosses and their states as ‘hostile brothers.’ Managing frictions meant the brothers could limit the disruptive costs of their permanent competition.

Thirdly, in 1945 those in charge were mindful of the wave of revolutions after WWI. They now faced demands for social justice from resistance movements in formerly Axis occupied territories, and stirring anti-colonial struggles elsewhere. Consent was won by promises of respect for democracy, an end to the indiscriminate butchering of populations by both the Axis and the Allies (such as at Auschwitz and Hiroshima), and progress. Nominally limiting excesses earned the rulers legitimacy. Buying consent was aided by an unprecedented economic boom which allowed for welfare states in the developed world.

In reality the ‘rules-based system’ was always a ‘profit-based system’ and ignored whenever the Great Powers found it inconvenient. For example, since the ICC’s foundation the US has conducted 15 wars leaving 4.5m dead. 7.6m children under five in its war zones are suffering from acute malnutrition. Yet till 7 October 2023, of the 64 people brought before the ICC all but 9 were African, the others being associated with Russia.

The factors that contributed to the rules-based system are unravelling. Military and economic competition ended the Cold War balance of USA and Russia in the former’s favour leading briefly to a unipolar imperial world. But it was short-lived. US economic domination is in decline. China’s GDP is predicted to overtake that of the US by around 2030.

Successive Democrat and Republic leaders tend to rely more on the use of military force. But that is no guarantee of imperialist success as defeat in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan testify. New regional sub-imperialisms are arising (such as Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia and so on) which are less amenable to dictation though part of the overall imperialist architecture. This means we live in a multipolar world with less constrained geopolitical rivalries.

The ability (and willingness) of capitalist governments to buy consent has declined with the fall in the world rate of profit by almost half since the 1960s. Instead, even as they fight amongst themselves, the brothers are mounting an offensive against the mass of people: ratcheting up exploitation, exacerbating social inequality, and promoting divide and rule tactics such as racism, sexism, homophobia and transphobia. Welfare states and pretence at democracy (masking big business domination) are both crumbling. Right-wing nationalism is stoked to ideologically head off opposition. A controlled relative ‘order’ is giving way to chaotic disorder and despotism at home and abroad. 

The final piece of the jigsaw is where hope for the future lies. There is resistance. Independence movements (including Scotland) challenge the very states that constitute the international structure. Breaking up the British state would jeopardise its veto at the UN and weaken its role as key ally/poodle in US adventures. There are also many other examples such as the Arab ‘spring’ revolutions, Black Lives Matter, the #MeToo movement, climate movement, and strike waves in various countries. These may seem disparate and unconnected, but all oppose one or other aspect of capitalism and its geopolitical expression in imperialism.

Today the world demand for a ceasefire and a Free Palestine is an outstanding example of resistance. In this context, and despite the intrinsic flaws outlined above, declarations by the UN, ICC and ICJ assist by shaping public perceptions. That is part of the explanation for a global majority (including in the USA) disapproving of what Israel is doing. The outrageous flouting of UN General Assembly opinion and murder of UN staff is therefore a weapon in the moral arsenal of anyone who sympathises with the plight of the Palestinians and is outraged by the indiscriminate slaughter of children. 

So the UN report confirming South Africa’s case at the ICJ denouncing genocide is extremely welcome. But justice never would, and will not be, delivered by what is left of the ‘rules-based international order’. Starmer’s new ministerial code (November 2024) requires adherence to international law, yet his government honours 320 of 350 contracts supplying arms to Israel. SNP MPs supported an Early Day Motion in February noting the ICJ ruling and calling for a ceasefire. The SNP suspended John Mason MSP for denying genocide, but Angus Robertson remains a minister and was not sacked for his secret meeting with the Israeli deputy ambassador to discuss ‘mutual interests’.

Justice for Palestine and Lebanon depends on continuing worldwide mass protests and Boycott Divestment and Sanctions (BDS). Scotland must continue to play its part, and progress here is possible. Barclays had to break links with the Israeli arms firm Elbit. The UCU union has disinvested £80m. The Lothian Pension Fund pulled away from a bank funding West Bank settlements but still has over £160m in companies arming Israel. Edinburgh University dithers over disinvestment. We face great obstacles, and the campaign is exhausting, but what we do next is vitally important.

Donny Gluckstein is the author of A People’s History of the Second World War and more recently The Radical Jewish Tradition.