David Miller explains how you can use your second vote to achieve change in Scotland
The second vote in the Scottish parliament elections is potentially a very significant tool for establishing the diverse Parliament that the rhetoric of devolution promised. Yet at the last election only two MSPs from smaller parties were elected to Holyrood. The evidence from voting patterns in 1999 is that very few of us were able to make a reasonable judgement on how to use our second vote. This perception is reinforced by the research carried out by the government. This showed that ‘few’ people ‘had any idea’ how the second vote worked. This was despite the Scottish Office planning and conducting a campaign to educate the voters. The planning for this campaign saw Donald Dewar stating publicly that ‘if anyone can say’ the campaign ‘is biased, or there is any political prejudice, I will eat my ballot paper in public’. As it happens the campaign was fundamentally biased against an understanding of the system in the sense that it did not explain how the second vote would translate into seats in the Parliament . This approach was approved by Scottish Office ministers, who were aware that a lack of knowledge about the use of the second vote would benefit Labour above all. Donald never did eat his ballot paper.
The government’s evaluation of the campaign showed that even modest information on how the second vote worked ‘may have altered the pattern of voting by encouraging a wider choice of parties between the first and second vote’. The research found that ‘some respondents felt that, with hindsight, they had not made the best use of their second vote because of a lack of understanding of the relationship between the two votes and the way in which seats would be allocated’.
The best place to see the second vote effect is in Glasgow, where Labour gained all the constituency seats with 46.5 per cent of the vote. This meant that there was no way that they could win any list seats. Yet 112,588 people voted Labour in the second vote. From the point of view of encouraging smaller parties, all of these votes were wasted. Even a modest redistribution of some of these votes could result in the election of a Green MSP in Glasgow or additional MSPs from the Lib Dems or SSP. The story in the Pollok constituency illustrates the problem well. Here Tommy Sheridan stood in the constituency vote and gained 5,611 votes. Although the SSP now believes that Sheridan might be able to take Pollok in the 2003 election in 1999 there was no chance. Sheridan was elected instead on the list vote. But in Pollok, even SSP voters were unclear about how the system worked. In the second vote Sheridan recorded a sharp drop to 3,374. Labour actually increased its number of votes in Pollok on the second vote by 836, many of which may have come from SSP voters. It may be the case the second vote is seen by some voters as a chance to express a second preference. This is inaccurate, and may be harmful for the prospects of a diverse Parliament. If you vote for one of the big parties (especially Labour) and want to vote for a smaller party as a second preference, that is not a problem. But on no account should any supporter of a smaller party use their second vote for a big party. In fact, whatever, you vote in the first ballot, a vote for one of the bigger parties (especially Labour) in the second ballot is likely to be either a wasted vote or to let in a Tory.
The most significant point about the way the system works is that if large number of Labour voters vote Labour in the second vote this will have the effect of allowing Tories to gain seats on the list. In every single region in Scotland the Tories picked up list seats on around seven to eight per cent of the vote. In the South of Scotland they returned four list MSPs on a mere 21.6 per cent of the vote (i.e. 5.4 per cent per seat). A reallocation of second votes from Labour to any other party could mean that the Tories lose out significantly. And the reallocation would only have to be a small number of votes. The safest Tory list MSP in the country (in Central Scotland) picked up just 9.2 per cent of the vote. It would only take a moderate reallocation of labour second votes (33.4 per cent) to the next best placed candidate to remove the Tory.
You may wish to use your vote as a protest against the war. Check out the candidate in your own constituency. The only honourable places to vote Labour if you are against the war is by using your first vote for constituency candidates such as John McAllion in Dundee East who have publicly and consistently opposed war. But make sure that you DO NOT use your second vote for Labour. It is clear that Labour could be severely punished for their support for the war. This could have a significant impact on the number of first past the post seats that Labour win. If so, this would mean that the SNP/Lib Dems would be less dominant in the second vote allocation, potentially opening the field even further to smaller parties. The most recent Herald/System Three poll published on March 7 does seem to show a significant anti-war effect with Labour forecast to lose eight seats.
There is no ‘correct answer’ to what to do with your second vote. Perhaps you would rather stop SNP or Labour or the Tories. Perhaps you think an SSP MSP would shift Labour left. Perhaps you are a Labour voter but are sympathetic to independence. Perhaps you would like to see environmental policies have a higher priority. In the 1999 election the SSP were out-polled by Arthur Scargill’s Socialist Labour Party in six out of eight regions. This time the SLP are not likely to field more than a handful of candidates and so the left vote will not be divided. Furthermore, if the polls are to be believed, the SSP has improved its showing quite markedly since the 1999 election. It seem likely then that the choices for many on the left about their second vote will be between the Greens and the SSP.
This analysis based the results of the 1999 election and will change according to changes in first vote. We have also drawn on the System Three polls for the Herald which do give some indication of how voting intentions have changed. In particular it can be noted that in the 1999 election the Greens out-polled the SSP in all regions except Glasgow. Opinion polls since then suggest that the SSP has overtaken the Greens. The most recent System Three polls put the SSP at 10 per cent and the Greens at six per cent . But this overall picture is complicated at the regional level. The only data we have on this are the System Three regional breakdowns. These are based on national samples and so do not give reliable results at the regional level. Nevertheless they do point up some regional trends. The figures we are using here are based on an average of the last three months poling (end of Dec to end of Feb). These will make the figures more reliable than just using one month, but will disguise the apparent swing to the smaller parties in February
Remembering that to be reasonably sure of a list seat parties have to gain a shade over seven per cent, it looks as if there could be significant gains across Scotland for smaller parties, the prospects for which can only be improved by anti-war feeling. In Highlands and Islands (7.3 per cent), Lothian (7.3 per cent), Central (7.3 per cent) West (8 per cent) and South (11.3 per cent) the SSP look likely to take a seat and are in touching distance of two in Glasgow (13.6 per cent). They seem to be doing less well in North East (4.3 per cent). In South (8.6 per cent) and Lothians (10.6 per cent) the Greens look fairly sure of a seat and seem just short in North East (6 per cent) and Highlands and Islands (5.7 per cent). Both parties may find the going tough in Mid Scotland and Fife (4.3 per cent and 6 per cent respectively).
The crucial point is that second votes count. Make sure you use yours wisely. Below we present a guide to how to use your vote across Scotland. The key to this is to use the guide to cast your second vote in the most effective way in your own region.
Central Scotland
Party 1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 46.5% 9 (90%) 39.3% 0
SNP 29.8% 0 27.8% 5
Lib Dem 6.6% 0 6.2% 1
Con 9.6% 0 9.2% 1
Green 0.0% 0 1.8% 0
D Canavan 5.6% 1 (10%) 8.4% 0
SSP 0.3% 0 1.7% 0
SLP 1.4% 0 3.3% 0
With 90 per cent of the constituency seats on 46 per cent of the vote, there is no chance of Labour picking up list seats in Central Scotland. A Labour voter using a second vote to vote for anyone other than the Tories could remove a Tory MSP. Equally, there are easily enough second Labour votes to return a Socialist or a Green instead of a Tory (especially if the fairly large Socialist Labour Party vote shifted). Central Scotland of course returned Dennis Canavan, and would have done so in both the constituency and the list vote. Surely anyone from the left is going to want to keep an independent voice like Dennis’s in the Parliament? In 2003 Canavan is standing only for the constituency in Falkirk West. The SSP are standing aside in the constituency, but will be on the list. System Three data suggest that the SSP are likely to be better placed than the Greens.
Recommendation: Vote Canavan first vote, SSP second
Glasgow
1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 49.3% 10 (100%) 43.9% 0
SNP 27.9% 0 25.5% 4
Lib Dem 8.1% 0 7.2% 1
Con 7.7% 0 7.9% 1
Green 0.0% 0 4.0% 0
SSP 6.3% 0 7.2% 1
SLP 0.2% 0 1.7% 0
In Glasgow, more than anywhere else, a second vote for Labour is pointless. With all the constituency seats on half the vote, Labour would need to lose four or five first past the post seats before a second Labour vote would have any effect. Much better to decide who your second choice party is and see if the Tory seat can be taken. The SSP is more likely to gain seats in Glasgow than the Greens
Recommendation: On the second vote, Vote SSP.
Highlands and Islands
1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 27.4% 1 (13%) 25.5% 3
SNP 28.5% 2 (25%) 27.7% 2
Lib Dem 28.3% 5 (62%) 21.4% 0
Con 14.3% 0 14.9% 2
Green 0.0% 0 3.7% 0
H&I All. 0.0% 0 1.3% 0
SSP 0.0% 0 0.9% 0 SLP 0.0% 0 1.4% 0
The Highlands and Islands is a much more open area. Second votes for Labour actually delivered seats, being the only place in Scotland where the party got a bigger vote share than seat share on the first vote. The Highland and Island Alliance didn’t make much impact, but this might change if people become more adventurous in using their second vote. However, there is scope to return a Green (5.7 per cent) or SSP (7.3 per cent) MSP at the expense of a Labour or Tory MSP.
Recommendation: On the second vote, SSP or Green
Lothians
1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 40.2% 8 (89%) 30.2% 0
SNP 26.9% 0 25.7% 3
Lib Dem 15.7% 1 (11%) 14.4% 1
Con 15.9% 0 15.8% 2
Green 0.0% 0 6.9% 1
SSP 0.7% 0 1.6% 0
SLP 0.0% 0 3.3% 0
This is where the Greens got their seat, and it seems that a lot of Labour voters may have used their second vote for the Greens. Given that it is unlikely that Labour will lose enough constituency seats to gain a list seat, an even greater swing to the Greens could remove a Tory (particularly if they managed to win a constituency seat). This seat is also likely to be complicated by Margo McDonald standing as an independent. This could put an extra Green or first SSP MSP at risk – depending on where Margo’s votes come from.
Recommendation: On the second vote, Green, SSP or Margo McDonald.
Mid Scotland and Fife
1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 36.4% 6 (67%) 33.4% 0
SNP 31.4% 2 (22%) 28.7% 3
Lib Dem 12.8% 1 (11%) 12.7% 1
Con 18.6% 0 18.6% 3
Green 0.0% 0 3.9% 0
SSP 0.0% 0 1.0% 0
SLP 0.0% 0 1.4% 0
Little shift from first to second votes in Mid Scotland and Fife, and with a fairly even spread of votes the Tories get three seats. It is much harder to alter the outcome using a second vote here, although the Labour second vote is wasted and could easily be spread across other parties to remove a Tory. The System Three data suggest a Green candidate is best placed here.
Recommendation: On the second vote, Green
North East Scotland
1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 43.5% 4 (45%) 25.5% 0
SNP 26.9% 2 (22%) 32.3% 4
Lib Dem 11.3% 3 (33%) 17.5% 0
Con 16.4% 0 18.3% 3
Green 0.0% 0 2.8% 0
SSP 0.6% 0 1.1% 0
SLP 0.0% 0 1.2% 0
The North East may be complicated by the Fishing Party. There seems to have been a bit of a defection from Labour to SNP and the Lib Dems with the second vote, but shifting a Labour vote to the Lib Dems here has no effect other than to boost the Tory proportion of the second vote. A Labour voter (or indeed a Lib Dem) who wanted to keep a Tory out might be better voting SNP with a second vote.
Recommendation: On the second vote, SNP, Green
South of Scotland
1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 26.2% 6 (67%) 31.0% 0
SNP 33.1% 1 (11%) 25.1% 3
Lib Dem 21.2% 2 (22%) 12.0% 0
Con 17.8% 0 21.6% 4
Green 0.0% 0 3.0% 0
SSP 0.7% 0 1.0% 0
SLP 0.0% 0 4.4% 0
Yet again, a Labour second vote is not a useful vote – particularly ironic in the one region which sees Labour increase its proportion in the second vote significantly (the West of Scotland sees a slight increase for Labour in the second vote). In South more than anywhere else, second votes for Labour are returning Tory seats. The SNP votes which are defecting to Labour would be much better to defect to the SSP or the Greens, possibly removing another Tory from the Parliament. System Three data suggest the SSP are showing well here, but that the Greens may also gain a seat.
Recommendation: On the second vote, SSP or Green
West of Scotland
1st Vote Con. seats 2nd Vote List seats
Lab 37.0% 9 (100.0%) 38.5% 0
SNP 25.6% 0 25.9% 4
Lib Dem 14.6% 0 11.0% 1
Con 22.8% 0 15.7% 2
Green 0.0% 0 2.6% 0
SSP 0.0% 0 1.9% 0
SLP 0.0% 0 1.4% 0
The most unbalanced region in Scotland, Labour won every single constituency seat with only 37 per cent of the vote. What is even less helpful is that Lib Dens and possible even Tories may have switched their second vote to Labour. Unless there is a seismic fall in Labour fortunes in the first vote they will never gain a list seat in the West. Labour voters really ought to look to the other parties to make a difference with their second vote. Recommendation: On the second vote, SSP
Conclusions
Without a change in the constituency (first) vote, the list (second) vote can only change things at the margins. However, half a dozen less Tories and half a dozen more SSP or Green MSPs really can make a difference. But if there is a falling away of Labour support over either their record or the war in Iraq, the second vote could be even more decisive in affecting the make up of the government in May.
David Miller is a lecturer in media studies at Stirling University