History doesn’t mechanically repeat itself, but today parts of the West are closer to fascism than at any time since the 1930s. A set of crises are combining to destabilise domestic political systems across the world. As the political centre-ground recedes, there has been polarisation to the right and left, but the main beneficiary is the racist far-right and fascist forces. Italy is ruled by Georgia Meloni, a fascist proudly standing in the tradition of Mussolini. Another fascist, Marine Le Pen, has made it to the final round of two French presidential elections. In Germany, the AfD, a party with a neo-Nazi wing, bagged one third of the vote in two recent East German state elections. At the end of September, elections in Austria saw the fascist Freedom Party receiving the most votes. In the US, Donald Trump could return to the White House almost four years after his supporters stormed the Capitol.

They lack the mass street armies that Mussolini and Hitler deployed to eliminate their enemies, as they lack the context of severe class conflict that convinced ruling classes to hand power over to the fascists as a ‘lesser evil’. Their ambition for now is limited to inserting themselves into the institutions of the state, and using public office to gradually dismantle the ‘cordon-sanitaire’ that since World War 2 had cast fascists outside of the acceptable political mainstream.

Some, like Trump or Nigel Farage in Britain, are racist populists rather than fascists. But what unites them all is the centrality of Islamophobia and anti-migrant racism in their political discourse – themes long popularised by mainstream politicians. Through the ‘Great Replacement Theory’, which claims there is a conspiracy by Jewish elites to replace white Europeans through mass immigration, antisemitism also remains at the centre of the ideology of these forces.

We are not immune

Britain is part of this trend. Reform UK, a racist far-right party, won 14.3 percent of the vote in the 2024 General Election. Following the election, fascist ‘Tommy Robinson’ mobilised 20,000 supporters in London. His rally inspired an explosion of local far-right activity that descended into riots and Islamophobic pogroms. Part of Keir Starmer’s response to the riots has involved pandering to racism, by pledging to deport 14,000 people by the end of the year – more than the Tory administration before him.

Is Scotland different? Scottish politics have been a rare exception to the polarisation and erosion of the neoliberal centre that has been the norm elsewhere. The SNP, a representative of the political centre, has dominated politics until recently. The explanation for this paradox lies in the way in which the possibility of Scottish independence acted as the main focus for anti-establishment feelings and class anger in Scotland. But a decade after the 2014 referendum, independence has disappeared from the horizon, and the party that promised to deliver it has overseen a further decline of living standards over this time. Life expectancy decline in the most deprived areas of the country, the public health emergencies of homelessness and drugs-related deaths, the highest imprisonment rate in Western Europe, or the fact that one in four children in Scotland live in poverty, all speak to the SNP’s comprehensive failure to tackle poverty and inequality.

This creates a fertile ground where the anger at the system’s failings can be captured by other forces. In the 2021 Holyrood election, Farage’s Brexit Party only received 5,793 votes. Fast forward to 2024, and Reform UK got 167,979 votes in Scotland standing on a much harder racist platform. A similar result at the 2026 Holyrood election would see them entering parliament with ten seats. The latest polls show them competing neck to neck with the Scottish Tories for third place.

What can we do?

Three options exist before the left: we can be complacent and deny the danger; we can panic; or we can organise to stop the far-right. The August riots in England and the north of Ireland were unprecedented. But the response from working class people was equally a watershed moment. Tens of thousands joined the Stand Up to Racism (SUTR) counter-protests and rallies. Our side reclaimed the streets and transformed the political atmosphere. The riots stopped. It demonstrated that there is a militant anti-racist majority that can be mobilised. It also showed that the left can be more than mere commentators in this process, and that we can be a real factor shaping politics.

Media pundits pondered what it was about Scotland’s culture that meant riots didn’t happen here. Was it Scotland’s progressive political culture? While the rhetoric of the Scottish Government around migration has generally been positive, it has been far from anti-racist: note for example its attempt, in the wake of the riots, and as part of a fresh pack of austerity measures, to scrap free bus travel for asylum seekers. Was it, then, the absence of a homegrown far-right movement? Make no mistake: those advertising protests at refugee hotels in Paisley or Bathgate on social media using Kaiser Chiefs’ I predict a riot song wished to replicate the violent scenes seen south of the border. In 2023, fascist groups operating in Scotland sought to mount campaigns against refugee accommodation in Erskine and Elgin. The key factor in stopping them was the swift response by SUTR, trades councils and local residents who organised large protests to defend the hotels. While all these elements combine to explain why the far-right is building from a lower base in Scotland than in England, their opportunities to make headway in the current racist political climate are growing and the Scottish government is not a bulwark against it.

For an anti-racist left

There is an argument that to counteract the rise of the far-right, the left should focus on presenting an economic alternative. This is partly true. We cannot allow millionaire Farage to present himself as the opposition to policies like Starmer’s winter fuel cuts. This requires breaking with the idea that we should ‘give Starmer a chance’, as TUC leader Paul Nowak has done, for example, while defending the Labour government’s pro-business measures as ‘tough choices’ to address the Tories’ legacy.

But the need for a fightback against austerity and attacks on pay and conditions cannot become an excuse for ducking hard anti-racist arguments about refugees or anti-Muslim hatred within our unions and communities. Opposing cuts or campaigning for better public services won’t automatically undercut the appeal of the far-right. Look across the Channel in France where much higher levels of industrial unrest in recent years coexist with a fascist party that has developed a stable following of millions of people.

The left needs both to provide a systemic alternative to the conditions the far-right seek to exploit, and also to shape an explicitly and class-based anti-racist and anti-fascist response. Articulating a mass, broad-based fightback against state racism, the far-right and fascism, is the purpose of SUTR. The forces of the radical left are far too small to achieve these ends by ourselves. The summer proved that this approach of forging unity and mobilising together can summon the numbers and social weight that can defeat the far-right, and in the process, lift the confidence of working class people to fight back around other issues.

This is why across Scotland we should become involved in mobilising for the London demonstration against Robinson on 26 October, called by SUTR with the TUC, and also backed by the STUC and STUC Black Workers’ Conference. Unchallenged, Robinson’s rally will give the green light to the far-right to go on the rampage again. It is crucial that we outnumber him and his supporters in one of the biggest anti-fascist events in Britain’s history. The STUC St Andrew’s Day anti-racism march and rally on 30 November, marking its 40th anniversary, is the other opportunity this year to put Scotland’s organised working class on a war footing against Reform UK and the fascist right. While only the start of turning the tide against racism, these events can give a boost to everybody who wants to organise against the far-right in their communities and workplaces.

Héctor Sierra is the national organiser for the Socialist Workers Party in Scotland