Vince Mills argues that there is no real optimistic outcome for the left from the General Election so it is time to look to the next generation

There is no doubt about it. The oncoming general election holds out as much prospect of glory for the left as the end of the football season for Partick Thistle. For us Jags fans there is no possibility of promotion, no cups to be won (we are out of all competitions) and finances being they way they are, not even the prospect of hoping that next season will be much better. Despite this, after Thistle’s more or less meaningless victory over Ross County, I heard otherwise intelligent supporters say (unless of course supporting Thistle leads to automatic disqualification from the intelligent category) that it was just possible after all that Dundee, the runaway leaders of the first division, might yet slip up.

I suspect such an introduction will have me consigned to the doom and gloom bucket by both the ‘optimism of the will’ left and the die hard Mayhill faithful. So let me hasten to add that I am very far from believing in stereotypical Scottish fashion that ‘we are all doomed’. But I would like a dose of realism and a workable strategy for left politics to emerge that might replace the empty optimism that emanates both from the Labour Left hoping for a Labour Left turn that is not going to happen, or the New Workers Party brigade, who mistakenly believe that old wine in new bottles with will solve the problem, if the old wine would only recognise that. The problem is no-one wants to drink the wine.

With the opinion polls ever shifting, largely in favour of New Labour, towards the possibility of a hung parliament as fear of a fiercely anti public sector Tory Party grows, there is a school of thought that believes there is a possibility of a progressive minority in Westminster being able to act as power broker insisting on a series of ‘left’ gains as the price of support. In this scenario, which assumes a narrow Labour victory, Labour left MPs and/or left SNP MPs should be prevailed upon to form such a progressive block. Of course they should, but the problem with this scenario is that it does not acknowledge the existing realities.

In one scenario, which assumes a narrow Labour victory, Labour left MPs and/or left SNP MPs should be prevailed upon to form a progressive block. Of course they should, but the problem with this scenario is that it does not acknowledge the existing realities. Firstly, from a Scottish perspective, let us ask the question: who are these left MPs?

Firstly, from a Scottish perspective, let us ask the question: who are these left MPs? The left wing Labour Representation Committee recognises only one Scottish MP as worthy of support – Katy Clark MP for North Ayrshire and Arran (please bear that in mind if you are in the Labour Party want to work for a progressive candidate this election). In case you think things are much better in England I am sorry to say that Left MPs willing to take such a position, likely to survive even a mild Tory revival, can probably be counted on one hand.

The notion that SNP MPs will turn up in the Westminster parliament ready to work with the left to put neo-liberalism in the Labour Party to the sword is fanciful. SNP MPs will have to consider very carefully how to act. Hobbled by the need for ideological silence on class, and hence unlikely to join a left caucus, their central calculations will be electoral. What would happen if their refusal to support a minority Labour government caused a general election and the return of the Tories. Memories of 1979 and turkeys voting for Christmas will be strong.

But actually the most compelling argument against this scenario is the ideological consensus that dominates politics in the UK and Scotland. Why would either New Labour or The Tories let the small matter of the size of a majority get in the way of satisfying the demands of corporate capital? If New Labour hang onto power by a small minority they can count on Tory support for any measure necessary to ensure a stable environment for capital, especially financial capital. The Tories have already deployed this strategy and I believe would only abandon it if they felt Labour had gone native.

We have to concede then that like Partick Thistle there are no prizes awaiting the Left at the end of the election contest. There are three scenarios: the Tories win with a clear majority. We know where we are: we start mobilising to fight cuts, save jobs, stop Trident renewal and end imperialist wars. What it may mean for the nationalists agenda will be considered shortly. Alternatively New Labour wins with a clear majority in which case we start mobilising to fight cuts, save jobs, stop Trident renewal and end imperialist wars. The third scenario which sees Labour winning with only a small majority and hence dependent on its small left, does admittedly offer a more interesting scenario but I believe the number of MPs from any party willing to act as force for serious left politics is small indeed and would be powerless in face of a Tory strategy to support New Labour on an issue by issue basis.

Still, we must do all that we can to limit Tory gains. Endorsement of the Tory strategy is a green light to swift and swinging cuts in the public sector. With New Labour at least, the structural and personal relationships that exist between the Party and Unions will act as a brake on the cuts agenda. That means in some places holding your nose and voting Labour if the alternative might send a Tory to parliament with a mandate to slash and burn. Of course there may be seats where that is not the choice and I accept that in those situations comrades on the left may have the opportunity to consider more long term strategies.

As suggested above perhaps the most promising scenario for the SNP is an outright Tory victory. Although looking less likely, this is still a real possibility. If the Tories win on the basis of a reduced public sector then a reduced public sector is what we will get and Scotland will be expected to at least, bear its share. This is important because the more the Tories appear Thacherite in Scotland the less tolerance they will get and the more likely that there will be a nationalist response. Perhaps that would be better put as a ‘national’ response because, as we shall see it may have more to do with fear of the Tories than love of nationalism.

There is some recent opinion poll evidence to support this in the shape of The Scotsman’s YouGov poll of early March. It was bitter sweet for the SNP. Support for the party fell 17 percentage points behind Labour in voting intentions for the general election.

But while Some 57 per cent said their views would be unchanged if Cameron won an election, 31 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for independence if the Tories won. Interestingly 41 per cent of Labour supporters took the position that they were more likely to support independence in the event of a Tory victory at Westminster.

There are varios scenarios. In the first the Tories win with a clear majority. We know where we are: we start mobilising to fight cuts, save jobs, stop Trident renewal and end imperialist wars. In the second, New Labour wins with a clear majority in which case we start mobilising to fight cuts, save jobs, stop Trident renewal and end imperialist wars.

We must apply all the usual caveats about opinion polls but if this is an accurate reflection of a response to a Tory general election victory, then it seems to me that once again the absence of class-based politics in the shape of a combative Labour Party or militant trade unions, explains the turn to a nationalist response. There were similar responses during the worst excesses of the last Tory government, given expression in the anti-poll tax campaigns and Scotland United. For a sharp turn in this direction it would not only require a Tory victory, but a series of actions by the Tories that would trigger the folk memory. The left, even those sections of it like the SSP long committed to a left/nationalist strategy would, ironically enough, find it difficult to have much influence on a resurgent SNP at last able to give full throttle to their single pan-class demand. Whether it would be enough to give the SNP victory in an independence referendum remains doubtful given the continued fall in support for that position, but it would certainly change the political mood music in Scotland.

So is the Left doomed? Forgive the football comparisons again but Gerry Britton, Thistle’s youth coach, had something interesting to say about Thistle’s brief return to premiership football a few years ago. He argues that it was down to the then-manager, John Lambie’s capacity to put together an effective side by buying players no longer deemed eligible by the bigger clubs and an awful lot of luck. Instead, Britton says, we should have been building up strength through a youth strategy.

The metaphor is obvious. For far too long the left in Scotland has looked to “leaders” and leadership battles in the unions and political parties as well as those already deemed to have a place in the political firmament to articulate on its behalf. When they have not, or indeed worse, mouthed obeisance to New Labour, we have been left stranded, leaderless, and voiceless at the mercy of those whose behaviour we could not defend and whose ideas are anathema to socialism. This needs to end. The most important priority for the Left is the building of a grass roots movement in the unions and the wider political community that will generate a leadership it can hold to account. This at least has begun to happen through the work in the Peoples Charter and the surge of disputes in the public and private sectors and the campaigns like that against the egregious GHA. In all of this there is evidence of increasing determination by sections of working people to show that they are ready to fight. It is humdrum, painstaking and sometimes draining activity. But it is on these foundations the left will build its way to glory.